Afghanistan beat Sri Lanka to boost their World Cup semi-final hopes, and it’s a result that could have a knock-on effect on the race to qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy, which England are in danger of missing. Here’s why.
It was a surprise to many, including England, to learn that qualification for the 2025 Champions Trophy would depend on performance in the current World Cup. The eight-team event will be held in Pakistan and will consist of the top seven teams of this World Cup outside the host country and Pakistan.
It would put the second month of the World Cup in immediate jeopardy, something that wasn’t really thought of until this week. Afghanistan has a chance to finish in the top four, but the semi-finalists are likely to be India, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.
It is less clear who will finish outside the top eight and miss out on the Champions Trophy in 2025. England are currently in 10th place with the win. Bangladesh also won, while Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Netherlands each won two games. Afghanistan has her three wins.
If England win all three games, they will almost certainly finish in the top eight. However, there are some combinations of outcomes where all of the top nine earn a total of four or more wins, so the final equation also comes down to net run rate. This would require the current top four teams, who have already won four games, to lose to the current six teams, including the Netherlands having to beat India. Therefore, a total of 4 wins will almost certainly be enough. Let’s take a look at the upcoming schedule for teams that have yet to win four games.
Afghanistan: Netherlands, Australia, South AfricaPakistan: Bangladesh, New Zealand, England
Sri Lanka: India, Bangladesh, New Zealand
Netherlands: Afghanistan, England, India
England: Australia, Netherlands, Pakistan
Bangladesh: > Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia
Two wins would probably be enough for England if the other games went generally well, but today’s match makes it more likely that the team will finish ninth with three wins in total. Afghanistan will play against the Netherlands. If the Netherlands win against Afghanistan (which is not out of the question, given their performance so far) and Sri Lanka win against Bangladesh, then seven teams, excluding England and Pakistan, will have already achieved three wins and the net run rate will be It will be as follows. It is important.
Given England’s difficulties so far, even two wins may be cause for optimism. Jos Buttler’s side go into the match against Australia as clear underdogs. If they lose, they will be officially eliminated from the World Cup, and the game against the Netherlands could be a de facto Champions Trophy tie, with everything at stake. England wins against the Netherlands, the Netherlands loses to Afghanistan and India, England loses to Australia and Pakistan, and unless there is a major change in Bangladesh, neither Bangladesh nor England or the Netherlands can advance to the Champions Trophy. .
On the other hand, if England lose this match, they will either have to beat Australia and Pakistan, or win one of them and hope Pakistan and Sri Lanka don’t win the next match. To qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy, England would need to beat the Netherlands and significantly outperform them given their net run rate.
To bet on the World Cup with our Match Centre Partners bet365 head here.
