Glenn Maxwell hit 201*, the first double-century in an ODI chase and one of the greatest innings in the format’s history, to seal Australia’s place in the World Cup semi-finals. Here’s what that result means for the rest of the challengers.
Australia joins India and South Africa in the final four, with these three countries also securing the top three spots. Australia will play South Africa in one semi-final, while India will face Afghanistan, Pakistan and New Zealand in the other semi-final. England, the Netherlands, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are all excluded.
All three teams are guaranteed four wins and will each have to play one game. Net run rate is likely to play a key role, but weather could also play a role. Next to New Zealand is Sri Lanka with the highest net run rate of the three countries at 0.398. If they win, they will be in a good position to qualify. Simply put, Pakistan needs to beat England by 130 runs, an overall average of 29 overs, plus the difference in lead between New Zealand and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan’s net run rate is even worse at -0.338. To surpass this mark, they need to win by at least 268 points.
However, weather could still affect the conflict between New Zealand and Sri Lanka. If there is no result or New Zealand loses, there will be a direct showdown between Pakistan and Afghanistan. What works in Pakistan’s favor is that they know the net run rate equation as they play last among his three teams. Afghanistan need to beat South Africa by at least 133 runs or chase the target within 25 overs at most to give Pakistan something to do in that regard.
To summarize, New Zealand’s net run rate situation is that unless they win big, Pakistan will advance if they win, and even if they don’t, in the best case scenario Afghanistan and Pakistan will also advance. Adjusting the balance of results will probably be enough.
Pakistan may face an incredible but not impossible net run rate challenge against England, but will probably hope for rain or Sri Lanka to help. In this case, a near-certain win is enough, and if you want a net run rate swing, you know exactly how much of a net run rate swing you want.
Afghanistan is playing the toughest of the three countries and has the most difficult challenges. They probably need a win and hope neither New Zealand nor Pakistan win to get to the semi-finals.
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