New Zealand won the first edition of the World Test Championship, in 2021, but in the following edition, they could only manage sixth place. With their 2023-25 campaign kicking off next week, what are their chances this time around?
The squad New Zealand have named for the two-Test series in Bangladesh ahead of the first match of the new rotation is very similar to the one that brought Mace in two-and-a-half years ago. Tim Southie currently leads the team, but Devon Conway, Tom Latham, Henry Nicholls, Kane Williamson, Kyle Jamieson and Neil Wagner all played in the squad against India in Southampton. Participated in the final. This speaks to a broader theme of quality over quantity in New Zealand’s international set-up, with Daryl Mitchell a prominent addition to the squad since joining the regular Test squad in 2022.
At first glance, New Zealand’s share of matches in the WTC in 2023-25 looks positive. Things are looking pretty winnable for New Zealand, who have not won a home Test match against a WTC team since West Indies in 2018, starting with the series against Bangladesh. On what is expected to be a flat track, they have the batsmen to beat Bangladesh, even if their spin attack is unreliable.
New Zealand’s next away series will be in Sri Lanka next September. If you don’t factor in any injuries or absences that may have occurred over the last 10 months, this looks like a winnable one too. The third consecutive match in India will be an even tougher test. Taking a game away from India would be a good outcome for any visiting team as they are the most dominant home team in the world.
But if New Zealand wins 4 out of 7 in these away series, assuming they beat Bangladesh twice, beat Sri Lanka but lost to India, New Zealand’s winning percentage from away games alone would be 57. Masu.
With a home series in mind, South Africa have already announced they will not send most of their SA20 stars to the two Test series in New Zealand in February. This means New Zealand will be favored to win their first home win of the series against the Proteas, significantly increasing their chances of this series. It is also worth noting that since the beginning of 2018, only India (8.0) has a better home win-loss ratio than New Zealand (5.333). During this period, New Zealand won 16 of their 22 home Test matches and lost just three. South Africa’s only visit to New Zealand during this period was in his two-match drawn series last year.
Following this series, Australia will play two more consecutive games against Tasman. That should be a much tougher challenge – Australia have not lost a Test in New Zealand since 1993. However, New Zealand’s only home series in the rotation will be against England next December. Until England’s stunning victory at Mt Maunganui earlier this year, New Zealand had not lost to England at home since 2008. England’s game against Stokes-McCallum was enough to overturn that record, but by this series they had lost five straight on tour to India and will likely spend the summer playing at home.
The last edition of the World Test Championship was conducted entirely on points basis for the first time and India scored 58.8% which was good enough to advance to the final as runners-up. If New Zealand win four of their seven away Test matches, their total will be 57 with four wins at home. Given their previous winning record at home and a weakened South African team, it seems unlikely that they will win the next Test against England. winter. It seems unlikely and unlikely that Australia will get a draw, but if New Zealand wins a Test in the away series against India or draws a few at home, New Zealand will just get back into the game. Become.
New Zealand’s path to the final is by no means clear, but it looks less complicated than last time. The first victims of Buzzball, they suffered an unexpected defeat in England, losing at home to Ebadot Hossain and wasting their chances early on.
Of course, there are reservations that could derail her campaign again. Their fast bowling line-up is aging, with 37-year-old Neil Wagner called up to replace the injured Matt Henry for the series in Bangladesh. It’s hard to predict what their pace attack will look like in 2025. But all things considered, if we can avoid any surprises, we have a good chance of making it to the final at Lord’s in 18 months.
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