A week ago, New Zealand faced off with hosts India in a top-of-the-table clash to decide who would remain the only unbeaten side at the halfway stage of the campaign. Now they face a battle to make the World Cup semi-finals.
Both sides have won four out of four games, with the Black Caps starting with a comfortable win over defending champions England, then avoiding the surprise experienced by South Africa and then England.
Since then, New Zealand have played well twice but lost twice, with India chasing a goal with two overs left and Australia falling just short of their all-time record in Dharamsala. The Black Caps remain third in terms of net run rate, just ahead of Australia, and four points ahead of fifth-placed Sri Lanka. Still, they will most likely be under pressure within the top four to secure a place in the semi-finals.
The main reason for this is the difficulty of the upcoming matches, with South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka currently all in the top six. New Zealand remains firmly in control of its own destiny. Three wins would definitely secure a spot, but two wins would probably be enough. However, given the Proteas’ fireworks form, it’s not impossible for New Zealand to go into the match against Pakistan with their third consecutive loss. We knew that if we lost, we would be tied with our opponent on points.
Even if they win against South Africa or Pakistan, the match against Sri Lanka could be important. Despite an injury-plagued season, Sri Lanka have performed well, with close to six wins. The setting is Afghanistan, India, and Bangladesh. Even if Sri Lanka loses to India and defeats the other two teams, the match between Sri Lanka and New Zealand is likely to be a de facto quarter-final. On the other hand, if Afghanistan wins against Sri Lanka, he will also be prepared for matches against the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa, where there is a chance of six wins.
Australia are level on points with New Zealand and cannot be complacent. However, the schedule is easy on paper as they still have games against the bottom two teams currently in the standings. Next we will play England and lastly we will face Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
India and South Africa have five wins each, so they probably only need one win to advance to the semi-finals, although mathematically it is still possible for five teams to finish with six or more wins. India will play England, Sri Lanka and Netherlands, while South Africa will play New Zealand and Afghanistan. Both teams may also play against each other.
New Zealand fans will take comfort in the fact that their net run rate is healthy, even if they have to rely on it. The current net run rate is 1.232, half of India’s, but the current net run rates of the bottom six countries are all negative. If New Zealand lose more than they win in the future, their net run rate will of course drop, but their big wins in their first four matches and two close losses put them in a good position to qualify for the knockouts. means that it is in
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