What is a close game? The 2023 World Cup has had its acolytes scratching their heads and rubbing their temples in an attempt to stretch the definition, with the competition so far feeling deprived of jeopardy and drama.
Of course it is possible. Cricket is a sport that can go on for five days and still end in a draw, and part of the beauty of close results lies in their rarity. Even though every match is exciting, none of them are exciting to some degree. Because skill trumps luck and competition feels like a lottery. Also notable was the Netherlands defeating South Africa (one of the tournament’s “in-form” teams) and Afghanistan’s first wins over England and Pakistan in the tournament’s history, tripling their World Cup winning streak in eight days. There were some upsets.
The sparseness of spectators contributes to the lack of spectacle, and the danger here is that we look back too fondly on old world events, remembering the good games, forgetting the attire, and letting the story take precedence. It’s about being done. The 2019 tournament was severely damaged by rain, and the ICC faced criticism for its audacity to stage the tournament in England. Was this event really good?
Let’s put some numbers to this. If we define a close match as a win by three wickets or less, or within the final over, then there are 29 such matches in World Cup history. Assuming a similar number of games with a threshold that allows batters to bat first, we get a 15-point lead. It feels about right, even if such a crude measure is imperfect. Some exciting games won’t be included, and some games that have been canceled for a while will look closer than ever thanks to a late upset. Still, as good as we are.
In the history of the World Cup, there have been 461 matches with a result and 58 such “thrillers”. This means that in eight games he has just over one close game. Of the 24 matches played so far at the 2023 World Cup, none met this standard. Afghanistan defeated Pakistan on the last ball of the penultimate over, India defeated New Zealand by four wickets and Holland defeated South Africa by 38 runs. This is as close as ever.
Why were there so few close games?Maybe the mentality has changed. The chases between 250 and 300, where you’d expect a real thriller, were either cut short at breakneck speed or never even came close, with one or two exceptions. Perhaps the difference between the best results and the rest is too large. Because all six combined results above 360 lead to bankruptcy.
What’s strange is that the argument for a 10-team tournament, despite its various flaws, was that eliminating “weaker” teams meant fewer losses. Despite losing early in 2019, there were three similar matches at the same point in the tournament. An eight-team event, the 2022 Women’s World Cup was full of close matches and ended as arguably her best ODI event in history, even if Australia had the upper hand.
Here we see another criterion of a good world championship: close competition in the standings, if not on the field. But there are also concerns here. Each team won at least one of their matches in their first World Cup match, but this likely affected the semi-finals as there were upsets where the top four teams pulled away.
At this point in 2019, all but one team had won at least once, but strangely the rain made the semi-final race a little closer. After 24 matches, all but Afghanistan were within reach of the 11-point mark, but in the end it was enough points for New Zealand but not enough for Pakistan.
The semi-finals were also tough. England lost to Sri Lanka and Australia, leaving them with two wins from two games, leaving Sri Lanka with a surprising six points from six games. Had Bangladesh won their last two games, they would have been level with New Zealand on 11 points. Pakistan went into the final game with a mathematical chance of beating New Zealand based on their net run rate. South Africa’s hopes were dashed when they lost to New Zealand in the 25th match. This was a thriller that also fit our category, but West Indies and Afghanistan were eliminated early.
To make things really interesting, someone will now have to make a move to build on Pakistan’s four-game winning streak in 2019. New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and India are all on the brink of six wins due to mistakes. Bangladesh and the Netherlands have already won less than six games, and today Sri Lanka and England will join them. Afghanistan, England and Pakistan – the last three countries yet to play – need to win four out of four games to reach six wins. If the results are consistent, the race could end within 10 days.
Pakistan, despite its vagaries, seems like a great place to start running. Next South Africa is a great place to start. Shaheen Shah Afridi rediscovers his talent, Haris Rauf reignites his fire, Shadab Khan becomes an action activist again, Babar Azam reclaims his title as ‘World’s Greatest’ However, protecting the team from outside noise will be difficult. Stop being. If this World Cup in India is to be remembered fondly, the host nation’s arch-rivals will be the key to it.
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